The Change Gap Model

Change Gap

The change gap is the potential lost or left unrealized between change potential and the realized outcome position.

It spans the intent, direction, and execution gaps. The three gaps point to different sources of potential loss or non-realization and require different responses. Addressing the intent gap requires stronger reasoning about what should be pursued and why. Addressing the direction gap requires stronger reasoning about how the established intent should be pursued. Addressing the execution gap requires effective realization of the chosen direction and sound, connected reasoning as execution unfolds.

Not the variance between plan and actual, which measures only delivery against a target already chosen. The change gap includes potential lost in establishing intent and choosing direction, not only what execution left unrealized.

Outcome Position

An outcome position represents the overall combination of relevant outcomes, considered in light of the values, interests, constraints, and trade-offs through which they should be judged.

It is multidimensional rather than a single outcome or measurable quantity. Relevant outcomes are not limited to those recognized or intended by the organization; an organizational state may also produce outcomes that are overlooked, misunderstood, unintended, or unobserved.

Not a single metric or a score. An outcome position is a conceptual combination of relevant outcomes, not a quantity the model requires the organization to calculate.

Potential

Potential represents a conceptual limit: the strongest outcome position that remains reasonably achievable within the possibilities still open to the change.

What counts as the strongest outcome position depends not only on what could be achieved, but also on how the relevant outcomes, values, interests, trade-offs, and constraints could be understood and judged. Potential is counterfactual rather than something the organization can directly identify or determine. Its role in the model is to provide a reference for reasoning about how subsequent choices constrain what remains achievable.

Not the same as what the organization expects to achieve or has currently identified as desirable.

Change Potential

The change potential is the strongest outcome position reasonably achievable in response to the change need.

It is a conceptual, counterfactual limit rather than something the organization can directly identify or determine. It represents what could reasonably be achieved if the relevant choices and judgments were made as well as circumstances allow. Intent potential cannot exceed change potential.

Not what the organization expects to achieve or has currently identified as desirable. Not a theoretical optimum knowable in hindsight.

Intent Potential

The intent potential is the strongest outcome position reasonably achievable within the established intent.

Establishing intent constrains the possibilities available in response to the change need. Intent potential cannot exceed change potential, and direction potential cannot exceed intent potential.

Not the intended outcomes themselves. Intended outcomes are what the organization has chosen to pursue; intent potential is the strongest outcome position still reasonably achievable given that choice.

Direction Potential

The direction potential is the strongest outcome position reasonably achievable within the chosen direction.

Because direction potential is counterfactual, it cannot be observed directly. Well-founded and sufficiently complete outcome targets can provide a practical reference point for reasoning about it and, where the intended outcomes adequately represent the relevant outcome dimensions and the targets reflect sound judgments about what the chosen direction could reasonably achieve, may approximate it.

Not the same as outcome targets. Targets are an observable reference that may approximate direction potential; they are not equivalent to it.

Realized Outcome Position

The realized outcome position is the outcome position actually produced by the realized state that results from execution of the chosen direction.

Outcome results provide evidence about the realized outcomes and, when they adequately capture the relevant outcomes, provide a practical approximation of the realized outcome position.

Not the delivered output. What was delivered is the work; the realized outcome position is the combination of outcomes the realized state actually produced.

Outcome References

Outcome references are practical references used to connect the Change Gap Model with expectations and evidence: an outcome baseline, outcome targets, and outcome results.

The conceptual potential positions are not directly observable. Outcome references are not equivalent to the outcomes or conceptual positions they inform. Because both the intent and direction gaps depend on counterfactual potential positions, they cannot be indicated through a direct comparison of observable references in the same way as the execution gap.

Not equivalent to the outcomes or conceptual positions they inform.

Outcome Baseline

The outcome baseline provides evidence about the current outcomes produced by the current state, before execution begins to alter that state.

It is one of the three outcome references that connect the Change Gap Model with expectations and evidence in practice.

Outcome Targets

Outcome targets express the expected levels of intended outcomes if the chosen direction is realized.

Because direction potential is counterfactual, it cannot be observed directly. Well-founded and sufficiently complete outcome targets can provide a practical reference point for reasoning about direction potential and, where the intended outcomes adequately represent the relevant outcome dimensions and the targets reflect sound judgments about what the chosen direction could reasonably achieve, may approximate it. Meeting the outcome targets provides evidence that the targeted outcomes were realized as expected, but does not establish that the targets reflected direction potential, that the intent was well founded, or that the chosen direction preserved the potential available within that intent.

Not equivalent to direction potential. Targets are a practical reference that may approximate it.

Outcome Results

Outcome results provide evidence about the realized outcomes and, when they adequately capture the relevant outcomes, provide a practical approximation of the realized outcome position.

Comparing targets with corresponding results can provide an indication of the execution gap, but does not measure it directly. The targets may not accurately or completely reflect what the chosen direction could reasonably achieve, the outcome results may not fully capture the realized outcomes, and the circumstances affecting those outcomes may have changed. A difference between targets and results therefore provides evidence of a possible execution shortfall, but requires interpretation.